Global Climate Talks from Failure to Cooperation and Hope: Swedish News Framings of COP15 and COP21

The purpose of this study is to offer an analysis of how two UN Conferences of Parties, COP15 in Copenhagen 2009 and COP21 in Paris 2015, were covered and debated in Swedish newspapers. Two national and two regional newspapers were selected for the study, and a qualitative frame analysis was conducted on 309 articles. A typology of frames applicable to science-related policy and climate change debates was used and its relevance for global climate summit context was discussed. Having territory in the Arctic region, indigenous populations affected by climate change measures, and political and public sensitivity to environmental issues, the climate debate has particular significance in the Swedish case. Findings indicate a trust in the role of national and supra-national governance to address climate change problems, but also that newspapers in Sweden maintained a focus on the global aspects of the two meetings, rather than framing them as surrogate battlefields for domestic politics.     

Potential Impacts of Global Warming on the Diversity and Distribution of Stream Insects in South Korea

Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two‐thirds of Odonata and one‐third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. Impacto Potencial del Calentamiento Global sobre la Diversidad y la Distribución de Insectos de Arroyo en Corea del Sur     

A 2.5‐million‐year perspective on coarse‐filter strategies for conserving nature's stage

Climate change will require novel conservation strategies. One such tactic is a coarse‐filter approach that focuses on conserving nature's stage (CNS) rather than the actors (individual species). However, there is a temporal mismatch between the long‐term goals of conservation and the short‐term nature of most ecological studies, which leaves many assumptions untested. Paleoecology provides a valuable perspective on coarse‐filter strategies by marshaling the natural experiments of the past to contextualize extinction risk due to the emerging impacts of climate change and anthropogenic threats. We reviewed examples from the paleoecological record that highlight the strengths, opportunities, and caveats of a CNS approach. We focused on the near‐time geological past of the Quaternary, during which species were subjected to widespread changes in climate and concomitant changes in the physical environment in general. Species experienced a range of individualistic responses to these changes, including community turnover and novel associations, extinction and speciation, range shifts, changes in local richness and evenness, and both equilibrium and disequilibrium responses. Due to the dynamic nature of species responses to Quaternary climate change, a coarse‐filter strategy may be appropriate for many taxa because it can accommodate dynamic processes. However, conservationists should also consider that the persistence of landforms varies across space and time, which could have potential long‐term consequences for geodiversity and thus biodiversity.     

Assessing the effectiveness of specially protected areas for conservation of Antarctica's botanical diversity

Vegetation is sparsely distributed over Antarctica's ice‐free ground, and distinct plant communities are present in each of the continent's 15 recently identified Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions (ACBRs). With rapidly increasing human activity in Antarctica, terrestrial plant communities are at risk of damage or destruction by trampling, overland transport, and infrastructure construction and from the impacts of anthropogenically introduced species, as well as uncontrollable pressures such as fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) activity and climate change. Under the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, the conservation of plant communities can be enacted and facilitated through the designation of Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs). We examined the distribution within the 15 ACBRs of the 33 ASPAs whose explicit purpose includes protecting macroscopic terrestrial flora. We completed the first survey using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) satellite remote sensing to provide baseline data on the extent of vegetation cover in all ASPAs designated for plant protection in Antarctica. Large omissions in the protection of Antarctic botanical diversity were found. There was no protection of plant communities in 6 ACBRs, and in another 6, <0.4% of the ACBR area was included in an ASPA that protected vegetation. Protected vegetation cover within the 33 ASPAs totaled 16.1 km² for the entire Antarctic continent; over half was within a single protected area. Over 96% of the protected vegetation was contained in 2 ACBRs, which together contributed only 7.8% of the continent's ice‐free ground. We conclude that Antarctic botanical diversity is clearly inadequately protected and call for systematic designation of ASPAs protecting plant communities by the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties, the members of the governing body of the continent.     

Knowledge,experience and the circus: academic perspectives on the processes of communicating the environmental and health impacts of electric vehicles

The translation of research findings into public realms has important implications for alternative technologies, such as electric vehicles (EVs). Much existing science communication research focuses on the agency of different publics in processes of scientific knowledge uptake. This study uses research related to the environmental and health impacts of EVs as a case study to explore how the individual agency of academic researchers can influence communication. Challenges to communication and opportunities to enhance the agency of researchers to engage in public dialogue are identified, with a focus on academics at different stages of their careers. This paper proposes a new way of understanding how these individualised nuances impact the communication of a particular researcher’s findings. These nuances are built through the researcher’s agency; a construct of their past experiences, professional and personal relationships with other actors and previous practices of communicating to publics. Communication models have previously concentrated on the heterogeneity of other actors and publics with the huge assumption that academics work consistently, homogenously, in a neutral way to the benefit of society. EVs were chosen as an appropriate case study as they are a contemporary technology that relies on the communication of knowledge and the public understanding of this knowledge to cater for future needs. The responses elicited from the interviews highlight the individual geographies of knowledge. Hence, a reflexive understanding of their role as an individual can provide valuable insights into how a researcher may distribute knowledges more effectively in their geographies to publics     

基于植被状态指数的干旱化特征及气候驱动因素分析——以江苏省为例

干旱是危害最大的自然灾害之一,给农业生产及地区经济造成了巨大的损失。以AVHRR和MODIS遥感数据集所计算的植被状态指数(Vegetation Condition Index,VCI)为监测指标,研究江苏省干旱的时空变化特征,并结合江苏省气象站台1982~2010年的实测气象资料,分析降水量、气温、相对湿度和日照时数这四个气候因子的变化趋势及其对干旱化的影响,不仅能够定量地描述植被干旱的空间变化,还可以反映长期气候对其起到的正反作用。研究结果表明:江苏省近30年的年均VCI值呈上升趋势,区域整体旱情有所缓解;四个气候因子中,年均温度逐渐升高,年均降水量基本保持不变,年均相对湿度和日照时数则呈下降趋势,其中气温和相对湿度与VCI的相关性达极显著水平,是影响江苏省旱情的主要因素。     

气候变化对涟水流域蓝水绿水资源的影响

利用SWAT分布式水文模型模拟分析1996~2015年过去20 a及2020~2079年未来60 a长期气候变化背景下涟水流域蓝水绿水资源的时空分布变化特征。将气候变化划分为1996~2015年、2020~2049年、2050~2079年三段气象背景时期,选用Had GEM2-AO大气模式的RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6、RCP8.5四种典型浓度路径作为未来时期的气象输入条件,并细分为9种气候变化情景。运用PSO粒子群优化算法,以KGE克林效率系数为目标函数,采用湘乡站实测径流量及MOD16蒸散发数据并行校准模型参数,通过p-factor、r-factor、R2、NSE和PBIAS评价模型模拟效果和不确定性,评价结果表明校准期及验证期蓝水绿水模拟均达到可信程度。情景分析结果表明,对比1996~2015年、2020~2049年、2050~2079年三段气候背景时期,在各RCP浓度路径下蓝水均呈现了不同程度的下降趋势,大约降低了1.4%~17.3%,绿水流均表现出一定的上升趋势,约增长3.5%~12.4%,绿水蓄量则在持续降低,大致下降了7.8%~19.7%,即使将95PPU模拟不确定性范围考虑进来,绿水流的增长趋势也较为明显。因此,将绿水资源纳入涟水流域未来水资源评价体系,实现蓝水绿水综合规划管理具有实际意义。     

Perceptions of climate change on the Island of Providencia

Climate change-related impacts have the capacity to substantially influence Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Caribbean. Currently, many SIDS are engaged in large-scale vulnerability assessments that aim to identify, analyse, and inform solutions to mitigate climate change-related impacts. Many of these assessments, while useful, place little emphasis on the local stakeholders' perceptions of climate change. One such Caribbean community impacted by climate-related change is Providence Island in Colombia. Using a vulnerability assessment framework (Marshall, P.A. et al. 2010. A framework for social adaptation to climate change: sustaining tropical coastal communities and industries. Gland: IUCN Publication Services), researchers interviewed island residents (N = 23) about their perceptions of climate change, impacts on the local environment, and how the island community may adapt. All interviews were transcribed and analysed using a priori and open coding to identify patterns of and relationships between stakeholders' responses. Results indicate that local perceptions of climate change are linked to (1) environmental knowledge, (2) environmental awareness, attitudes, and beliefs, and (3) perceptions of risk. Implications for local adaptive strategies, education, communication, and suggestions for engagement at the local level are discussed.     

秦岭南部地区农业气候资源的变化及其对油菜的影响

秦岭南部地区地形及气候条件复杂,作为油菜主要种植区之一,研究其农业气候资源的变化特征及其对油菜的影响,可以为该区有效利用农业气候资源、合理安排农事活动提高油菜生产提供实践参考。以1960~2014年秦岭南部33个站点的逐日气象数据和近25a各省市统计年鉴资料,通过滑动平均、线性倾向估计、灰色关联分析等方法,研究秦岭南部农业气候资源的时空变化特征及对油菜产量的影响。结果表明:(1)近55a来,秦岭南部地区油菜生长季内平均气温和≥5℃积温呈上升趋势,平均速率分别为0.2、29.3℃/10 a,冻害指数、降水量、开花期降水量和相对湿度与日照时数都呈减少趋势,平均每10 a分别减少0.3、14.8 mm、1.4 mm、0.6%、32.2 h。(2)近55a来研究区油菜生长季内平均气温与≥5℃积温的多年平均空间分布都表现为由西南向东北方向递减,冻害指数的空间变化与二者相反,表明越冬期极端最低气温值在空间上由西南向东北逐渐减小;其水资源指标多年平均空间分布由南向北递减,日照时数则由西南向东北递增。(3)1960~2014年秦岭南部油菜生长季内平均气温与≥5℃积温在空间上均呈极显著的增加趋势,研究区西部变化幅度较小,东部变化幅度较大,冻害指数的空间变化趋势与二者相同;水资源与日照时数在空间上均呈极显著的减少趋势,只有少数站点表现为极显著的增加趋势,而日照时数在研究区东部变化幅度相对较大,其余区域变化幅度相对较小。总体上,平均气温和≥5℃积温高值区的变化幅度小,低值区变化幅度大,其他指标与之相反。(4)近25a来秦岭南部油菜气候产量呈不明显的上升趋势,平均速率为3.79 kg/(a·hm~2),其空间变化幅度差异大,且大部分站点的变化趋势均不显著;由关联度得作用于各区域油菜气候产量的主要影响因子存在差异。各农业气候资源指标的变化幅度越大,对油菜单产的可能影响相对较大。     

Do lagoons near concentrated animal feeding operations promote nitrous oxide supersaturation?

Animal wastewater lagoons nearby concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) represent the latest tendency in global animal farming, severely impacting the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions, including nitrous oxide (N₂O). We hypothesized that lagoon wastewater could be supersaturated with N₂O as part of incomplete microbial nitrification/denitrification processes, thereby regulating the N₂O partitioning in the gaseous phase. The objectives of this study were: (i) to investigate the magnitude of dissolved N₂O concentrations in the lagoon; and (ii) to determine the extent to which supersaturation of N₂O occurs in wastewater lagoons. Dissolved N₂O concentrations in the wastewater samples were high, ranging from 0.4 to 40.5 μg N₂O mL⁻¹. Calculated dissolved N₂O concentrations from the experimentally measured partition coefficients were much greater than those typically expected in aquatic systems (<∼0.6 μg N₂O mL⁻¹). Knowledge of the factors controlling the magnitude of N₂O supersaturation could potentially bridge mass balance differences between in situ measurements and global N₂O models.